To understand our background, it is necessary to explain our conviction based on research, practical approvements and deeper expert discussions:
The German electricity requirements of today (around 510 TWh) will increase due to the growing e-mobility-demand, the expansion of heat pumps and the broad implementation of 5G (thinkable: 7-800 TWh p. a.) At the same time Germany has to compensate its nuclear power-exit in 2022 and its coal-exit in 2038. It seems to be realistic that in 20 years 170-200 GW of the installed wattage rating have to come from green energy sources like wind power and solar power; with their huge volatilities. For their compensation flexible charging and usage become more and more important, flanked by a comprehensive energy storage-system (for 24 hours e-storage need up to 2 TWh e-storage capacities have to be available permanently, especially if the standby-emergency-power plants will decrease their availability).
The German e-mobility turnaround has to be realized consequently due to the fact that 20 % of the German CO2-pollution originate in the traffic sector. From nearly 170 million CO2 (German) tons p. a. Germany has to reduce its CO2-burden down to 100 million CO2 p. a. in 2030, which requests the indemnity of 10 million e-cars within ten years. In 2040 already more than 22 million e-cars have to attain the next binding CO2-decade target of the EU and the German government. 35 million e-cars and 2 million e-transporters will demand around 140 TWh p. a. and could offer a technical battery capacity of more than 1.8 billion kW, representing a purchase price of 180 billion Euros. Such a capacity of 1.8 TW seems to be very attractive with regard to the extraordinary storage needs of the German e-sector. Why going two separated battery ways, if a common solution is possible, cheaper and more productive? Nearly a third of the needed energy storage capacity could be provided from the e-mobility-sector, which provides a constant second income.
The battery demand of the future will grow extremely; mostly without safe value chains and available resources (see Germany). Benchmark Mineral Intelligence prognosticates that the global demand of lithium, cobalt and nickel will increase extremely (compared to 2017 in 2028: factor 9.6 for lithium, factor 18.9 for cobalt and factor 5.1 for nickel).
Macquarie expects that the world demand of lithium will be around 500,000 tons p. a by 2025; one percent of the available global reserves, which mainly exist in six countries (85 % of the mineral reserves are in Argentina, Bolivia, Chile, China, Australia and in the USA). For its e-mobility the German OEM-market needs 500,000 t lithium p. a. on average within the next 30 years (today: per 1 kWh usage of lithium-ionic-batteries 0.15 kg lithium is needed); the German OEMs will need a minimum of 200,000 p. a. This dependency will become a big purchase price-trigger, but could be reduced down to 40 % through longer battery-lifetimes (factor 4-5!), more lithium-efficiency and second-life-strategies and more. The technological approach of INFRADianba is the best way to achieve this; flanked by the advantage to always apply the most recent products, and optimal raw materials.
The central key to solving the pollution-problems in the traffic sector is the rapid decarbonization (electrification of the German fleets). In the larger communities 20 % of the motor vehicles are commercial, polluting 80 % of the local greenhouse gases. They are also mainly responsible for other environmental burdens like noise.
4.5 million motorcars and light trucks (up to 7.5 t) belong to1.6 million entrepreneurial motor pools; 85-90 % of the registered 3.15 million transportation-vehicles, mainly trucks, are operated in pools of enterprises for logistic or analogical purposes. The ten biggest truck rentals in Germany are in chargeof 32,000 trucks, and need innovative perspectives. The more than 75,000 buses and 45,000 taxicabs, organized in fleets belonging to 500 taxicab-central offices, and the more than 50,000 rental cars are very interesting decarbonization-objects, too. Every year more than 800,000 new vehicles for business and fleet purposes get their official licenses (2018). Besides practical hydrogen-solutions for the biggest trucks, these fleet-operators look for e-infrastructures with a high availability, low CAPEX and OPEX, minimal costs due to rapid charging and optimal technical and economical utilization.
E-stations with battery-swapping-components are an optimal solution for commercial e-mobiles with high usage-frequencies. The battery swapping technology of INFRADianba allows three battery swappings per day for taxi-fleet-cars which can then drive up to 600-700 km per day with nomore than a total energy supply interruption of 5 minutes (net). By supplying these commercial fleets, which are the dominating urban traffic-polluters, the swapping-based e-stations can operate above the break-even. This is an attractive invitation to single-car-drivers, which represent 80-90 % of the 35 million e-car-potential which is projected for 2050. Respecting the fact that 64.7 % (2018) of the new registered cars are declared official cars which are running more or less in an operational commercial context, a second rollout after the fleet-based break-even seems to be very realistic.
A break trough with commercial fleets, which have to optimize their operating costs daily, opens the door for generally lower electricity prices due to big consumption volumes, dual use-input-minimization and the reliability of cooperation stipulations with fleet-operators. Many freelancing e-mobile-owners and -drivers will appreciate the advantages of logistically well located stations with additional services, rapid swapping and low prices which result from the mass-factor of professionally operated stations and its electricity storage effects (see battery aggregations). No network of AC-pillars and no over night at-home-plug-in can offer low prices and support such as the combined and enriched swapping-charging-storing-infrastructure of INFRADianba (see swap 4.0 in the “7 in 1”-context).
The e-mobility-turnaround needs possible and feasable infrastructure strategies. Finally the German e-car-producers will not pay the German plug-in-pillar-expansion because of the high additional investment costs; in a 50-70 billion Euro-amount. The international car market is so comptitivethat these burdens would destroy the market chances of German cars fundamentally.
The leading German energy suppliers are not interested in investing in AC-pillars due to their long charging cycles and low operation-incomes which can never simultaneously secure a customer-friendly and shareholder-oriented business approach. DC-plug-in is extremely expensive (see innogy with nearly 70 cent/kWh); supercharging is based on station- and grid-expenditures with too overwhelming CAPEX and OPEX, if a broad and broadly accepted self-supporting e-mobility-rollout is intended. The state has been weakened through Corona-relatedcosts, the financial/economical consequences of Corona, and increasing costs for the climate policy, the superannuation of our society, new military needs a.s.o.
The communes, confronted with the binding targets of the energy-turnaround and strict driving bans for Diesel-vehicles (already 35 bans through court decisions), have to bridge the crisis-caused loss of taxes, fees and other incomes, extraordinary costs of precaution and medication, the expenses for a careful and sustainable revival of the communal life and much more. 60 billion Euros have been omitted in in May 2020 alone. Most of them will not accept additional costs for grid investments, if they are not strictly obligated. Many of them will be close to bankruptcy, if the Corona crisis continues without enough recovery. They need feasible, effective and rapidly convertible infrastructural solutions. Multi-e-stations with swapping, minimizing huge installation tasks and grid-investments could help them to overcome. At the moment (2020/2021) public transport is inefficient due to the obligatory social distancing: the operators only have 25 % of the now needed capacities. Instead of plug-in-e-buses with big capacity losses due totime wasting charging, the swapping-approach allows to use the transportation capacities nearly entirely. In combination with smaller swapping e-buses it is easy to organize a flexible and sensitive response to these transportation challenges, the fast building up of swapping-stations with specific battery aggregations included, which enables return-oriented dual-use-applications.
With the experiences of the Corona crisis the revolution of swapping plus multi-use can and will take place immediately, helping the communes to electrify their transportation system based on demand and to gainmore options: for example in combination with hydrogen or autonomous driving or non-carbon-fuels; as storage-partner of the smart grid and as taker of cheap surplus-energy. Such swapping for communal fleets seems to be a key point for the mobility future. Germany has 11,054 communes, but 89 % of its population live in only 3,000 communes (79 million inhabitants). With a net of 15,000 communal or semi-communal multi-e-stations, additionally to the traditional suppliers like BP, Aral or Shell, these communes with their different public and private fleets would be strong enough to become a trendsetting and success-triggering avant-garde of the German climate-turnaround.